At the European Council summit on Thursday, 14 December 2023, it was decided to begin EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. In addition, the membership process was set in motion for Georgia, which was granted candidate country status.
The start of the membership process for all of these states has been significantly influenced by Russia’s aggressive actions against them. Russia continues the illegal and destructive war of aggression it launched in Ukraine in 2014, and still shows no signs of striving for a lasting peace. The 2008 Georgian war was also evidence of Russia’s aim to draw sovereign states into its sphere of influence through conflict. It partly succeeded in this with regard to the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Moldova, Ukraine’s neighbor, there has been growing distance from Russia, which is seen as a major security threat. All of these states include, wholly or in part, territories to which Russia claims to be entitled for historical reasons, but which are now sovereign states in their own right. The membership negotiations are a demonstration that Russia’s demands will not be capitulated to.
If this were a typical membership negotiation process, the course of negotiations would, in simplified terms, proceed as follows. The membership negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova will likely progress to the first negotiation stage, in which the applicant countries’ legislation is compared to the Union’s body of law, the acquis communautaire. This lays the groundwork for the possible later implementation of the EU’s legal and treaty frameworks in the member states, while also comparing the applicant countries’ current legislation for compatibility with Union law. The second stage of negotiations builds on this comparison, as it sets candidate-specific assessment criteria, i.e., the conditions for membership. The third and final negotiation stage covers the handling of the negotiating chapters, which also involves amending national legislation and adopting EU legislation. In the final stages of membership, the candidate country and the member states conclude the actual accession treaty.
In reality, the process is likely to be long and complicated. First, Ukraine is still a country at war, so the situation must calm down in one way or another before full membership can be achieved. Second, new member states must meet the Copenhagen criteria set by the Union, which include requirements regarding democracy, the rule of law, and a functioning market economy. This will require reforms in the candidate countries, the effects of which may not become visible for years. Corruption, for example, is a particular problem in Ukraine. Third, EU enlargement requires many unanimous decisions from the current 27 member states as well. The recent decision to begin membership negotiations with Ukraine was only possible because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was asked to leave the meeting during the discussion, so that the decision could be made unanimously. Orbán, however, did block the approval of a €50 billion support package for Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine’s significance as a major grain producer has already sparked disagreements, for example in Poland, which has otherwise positioned itself as one of Ukraine’s most important supporters.
The historic membership negotiations now gradually getting underway will be anything but easy. Nevertheless, in the long run they are a necessity, since yielding to Russia’s demands has always only led to further, greater demands. The European Union must be able to bind Ukraine, as well as Moldova and Georgia, more closely to itself in this increasingly tense geopolitical situation. At the same time, however, it must be ensured that the Copenhagen criteria continue to be upheld, since without those principles the EU cannot fulfill its genuine purpose.
Text: Santeri Anttila
The author is TEN’s EU Affairs Officer and studies political science at Tampere University.