A defining feature of Britain’s EU withdrawal process has been that the country’s government is in a constant state of negotiating with itself. March 29th is approaching, but the country still hasn’t decided what it wants. Behind the drama lie, to a large extent, the ideological problems of Britain’s main parties – the Conservatives and the Labour Party – as well as the two-party system that still prevails in England and Wales.
Which matters more to Conservatives: Tradition or free trade?
The cornerstone of British conservatism is the belief that society’s institutions develop ‘organically’, gradually and as if by themselves. The rapidly developing EU, which came into being on the initiative of state leaders, doesn’t sit well with this cautious way of thinking. When decision-making power is exercised jointly with other countries, rather than solely within the Palace of Westminster, first built in 1013, a conservative instinctively hits the brakes.
Especially since the days of Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s Conservative Party has simultaneously championed free trade and deregulation. Thatcher was in fact one of the most enthusiastic supporters of the EU’s single market, and Britain overall has been one of the single market’s key architects.
The Conservatives’ problem is that in today’s Europe, preserving centuries-old traditions and conducting frictionless trade with one’s neighbours are mutually exclusive options. Throughout the Brexit negotiations, the British government has tried to hold on to both (“have your cake and eat it too”), but has been unable to push its head through a stone wall. Theresa May, for example, initially demanded that after Brexit, Britain would no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice. However, if Britain wants to break free from European rulings that threaten its national legal tradition, trade relations are put at risk. The British government proposed various complicated solutions to avoid this problem, but the EU did not budge much. Under the Brexit agreement, the EU Court of Justice has the final say when a dispute concerns the interpretation of EU law.
Labour’s two faces
Britain’s two-party system (primarily in England and Wales – in Scotland the national party muddles the picture, and in Northern Ireland the political dividing line is the question of Irish reunification) has forced different shades of centre-right and right-wing politics to operate together within the same party. The Conservative Party last split in the mid-19th century over the so-called Corn Laws – on that occasion too, due to a dispute over free trade. If Britain leaves the EU without a withdrawal agreement, the party may split again. The Labour Party, meanwhile, last split in two in 1981, and a new attempt at a split is currently underway.
Four well-known MPs, including former European Commission President Roy Jenkins, left Labour in 1981. One major reason for the split was that party leader Michael Foot, who represented the party’s left wing, demanded that Britain leave the EEC, the EU’s predecessor.
This winter, history is repeating itself: so far, eight Labour MPs have left Labour to form the new Independent Group. The MPs who have left Labour are clearly closer to the political centre than left-wing party leader Jeremy Corbyn, under whose leadership Labour has been accused of anti-EU sentiment and anti-Semitism.
After months of pressure, Corbyn now reluctantly supports a new EU referendum, but Labour’s split into two camps is still evident. In many other countries, the left and social democrats are separated into two different parties, and left-wing parties tend to be somewhat more wary of the EU.
In Britain’s two-party system, these two wings compete for the Labour leadership, and a leader’s stance on the EU is a clear indication of their political orientation. The centrist Tony Blair supports the EU, while Jeremy Corbyn has voted against EU integration in parliament throughout his career. Especially now that the EU has become the number one issue in British politics, those following EU policy can expect an interesting battle between the party’s different wings in the next Labour leadership election.
Bypassing through the centre?
The new Independent Group is being touted as Britain’s next new party. The last time this was tried, Roy Jenkins and colleagues’ SDP fizzled out within a few years, because despite polling around ten percent, it failed to win more than a handful of seats in the British parliament in the 1983 and 1987 elections. Britain’s electoral system ensures that going it alone generally doesn’t pay off.
Perhaps, though, by the 2020s politics has already changed since the 1980s. Economic worries never disappear from the world, but nowadays questions of values, such as the divide between internationalism and insularity, move voters in a different way than they did a few decades ago. The Conservatives and Labour are both ill at ease with their own EU stances, which could open up space for a new party.
At the same time, however, both traditional main parties continually hold the power to shut Westminster’s gates in newcomers’ faces. If Labour or the Conservatives choose a modern, pro-European politician as their leader, the gap currently yawning in the political centre could close within a single party conference weekend.
On the other hand, the gap can always reopen – especially if public opinion on EU membership remains hovering around 50 percent, giving both pro-EU and anti-EU politicians an equal chance of winning elections. The purpose of a two-party system is to guarantee political stability, but when the nation and both main parties are deeply divided over the EU question, Britain’s European policy may swing wildly over the next couple of decades.
Text: Juuso Järviniemi
Juuso Järviniemi is studying international relations at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. This academic year, he is on an Erasmus exchange at Sciences Po in Paris. Juuso was chair of Young European Movement UK, the British sister organisation of Eurooppanuoret, during the 2017–2018 academic year. He has also served on the board of Eurooppanuoret Tampere from 2014 to 2016.
